THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov
With election day just days away, our public affairs expert, Alexandre Boucher, shares 10 observations on how election campaigns in Quebec have evolved.
1. The end of the two-party system
There was a time when two major parties alternated in power. Today, five parties can reasonably hope to elect members to the National Assembly. This fragmentation of the political landscape has made electoral contests far less predictable.
2. Strategic voting is gaining ground
With more political options available, some voters are making their choice based on a desire to prevent a leading candidate or party from winning. An estimated 7% to 12% of voters cast their ballots strategically. Among supporters of a party perceived as unlikely to win, that proportion could rise to between 20% and 35%.
3. The media landscape has changed
The days of campaign buses packed with journalists are over. News media are facing structural challenges, and many outlets no longer have the financial or human resources to assign a journalist to every campaign tour.
4. Fixed election dates have extended the campaign
The predictability of fixed election dates effectively stretches the campaign well beyond the official election period. By the time the campaign formally begins, most candidates have already been announced, many commitments have been made public, and campaign slogans have been unveiled.
5. Social media has become a stage
The daily press conference was once the central meeting point between party leaders and the media. Today, leaders are expected to post, comment, film, respond, put themselves front and centre, and tailor their messages to each platform. One party leader even launched a podcast!
6. The decline of party activism
Political party membership has fallen significantly. As a result, the large campaign rallies that once drew substantial crowds have become much less common.
7. The landline: an endangered species
Political parties once relied heavily on phone calls to identify supporters and mobilize them on election day. Today, landlines are the exception, while cellphones have become the norm. That creates a challenge for political parties and pollsters alike.
8. The rise of polling aggregators
Models and algorithms can predict the winner with a high degree of accuracy even before votes are cast. They now shape the public conversation and reinforce strategic voting.
9. Voter turnout has declined
Voter turnout in Quebec provincial elections fell from 85.27% in 1976 to 66.15% in 2022.
Advance voting has become more accessible, and voters have more opportunities to cast their ballots. Yet political disengagement, voter fatigue, and the perception that an individual vote will not make a difference remain part of the electoral landscape.
10. Campaign machines are less decisive
Political momentum increasingly emerges from more diffuse spheres of influence, including social media, public figures, and online communities.
The most engaged voters will cast their ballots. Others may once again choose not to vote.With election day just days away, our public affairs expert, Alexandre Boucher, shares 10 observations on how election campaigns in Quebec have evolved.y, landlines are the exception, while cellphones have become the norm. That creates a challenge for political parties and pollsters alike.
8. The rise of polling aggregators
Models and algorithms can predict the winner with a high degree of accuracy even before votes are cast. They now shape the public conversation and reinforce strategic voting.
9. Voter turnout has declined
Voter turnout in Quebec provincial elections fell from 85.27% in 1976 to 66.15% in 2022.
Advance voting has become more accessible, and voters have more opportunities to cast their ballots. Yet political disengagement, voter fatigue, and the perception that an individual vote will not make a difference remain part of the electoral landscape.
10. Campaign machines are less decisive
Political momentum increasingly emerges from more diffuse spheres of influence, including social media, public figures, and online communities.
The most engaged voters will cast their ballots. Others may once again choose not to vote.
Want to better understand the changing political landscape and what it could mean for your organization? Connect with our public affairs experts to discuss what comes next.
