THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jacques Boissinot
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jacques Boissinot
Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette met with the Lieutenant-Governor of Quebec this morning to request the dissolution of the National Assembly and call a general election. The campaign will last 39 days, the longest period permitted by law.
Following her meeting with the Lieutenant-Governor, the outgoing premier asked Quebecers to give her “a first mandate for a Fréchette government.” Will her gamble on a long campaign pay off? We will find out on Oct. 5.
Where things stand
Team Christine Fréchette – Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ)
Coalition avenir Québec Leader Christine Fréchette will try to distance herself from the CAQ’s record over the past eight years. The party’s name change is a good example. But although she was first elected as an MNA in 2022, then appointed to cabinet before becoming Premier of Quebec in April 2026, Quebecers still associate her political party with François Legault’s legacy. Opposition parties will also try to link her to her predecessor.
Ironically, despite the saga and the media attention in recent days surrounding the trade war between Canada and the United States, Fréchette is probably the Quebec party leader who stands to benefit the most. She has managed to maintain a media presence because of her role as premier and is perceived as having the stature to serve as premier at a time when Quebecers most need their government’s support, a dynamic reminiscent of what we saw during the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, she is benefiting from the popularity of Canada’s prime minister, while the CAQ is slowly gaining ground in the polls.
Will Fréchette succeed in reviving a party that was thought to be “dead” only a few months ago? Could we see a repeat of the Mark Carney phenomenon? Stay tuned...
Parti québécois (PQ)
If there is one party that could be at a disadvantage in a 39-day election campaign, it is, of course, the party leading in the polls. Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will have to maintain his lead while becoming the primary target of his opponents.
St-Pierre Plamondon can still hope to form a majority government, but he will have to win several tight races in ridings that are mostly held by the CAQ.
His main challenge will be to avoid talking too much about sovereignty, an issue that remains unpopular with a majority of Quebecers. His opponents will certainly try to bring the issue to the forefront and associate it with the uncertainty that a potential referendum could create, even though the PQ has indicated that it intends to wait until the end of U.S. President Donald Trump’s term before putting the question to Quebecers.
Will St-Pierre Plamondon succeed in imposing his vision of government, or will his opponents manage to make the threat of a referendum an issue in the campaign?
Quebec Liberal Party (QLP)
After a summer marked by challenges, Quebec Liberal Party Leader Charles Milliard must have been eagerly awaiting this day. He has nothing to lose. On the contrary, he has everything to gain!
Milliard remains relatively unknown to the general public. He will therefore have 39 days to make himself known, present his vision for Quebec, and put forward concrete commitments. The Liberals will also want to put behind them a year in which they mostly made headlines for the wrong reasons.
Based on recent polling trends, the chances of the QLP, like the CAQ, forming the next government are extremely slim at the moment. However, an election campaign can quickly change the dynamics of the race. Milliard will notably try to reconnect with francophone voters and focus on expanding the QLP’s presence in the regions. In other words, the Liberals will want to shed their Montreal-centric image and seek gains, particularly in Outaouais, Estrie, and Montérégie.
What will Milliard propose to make his party once again the safe choice for voters who want to prevent the election of a Parti Québécois government?
Québec solidaire (QS)
Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal’s main challenge will be to hold on to the ridings currently represented by her party. Following the departure of several of its high-profile MNAs, including Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, Manon Massé, and Christine Labrie, and a drop in the polls for a party that seems unable to find a way to reverse its fortunes, Ghazal will be under considerable pressure. She will need to prevent her party from losing its status as a recognized parliamentary group in the National Assembly after Oct. 5.
In recent weeks, we have seen the party attempt to adopt a more pragmatic approach. One example is Ghazal’s acknowledgement of the “climate fatigue” felt by Quebecers. This change in tone appears to reflect a desire to appeal to voters beyond Québec solidaire’s traditional base.
Will that be enough to broaden its electoral base, or will its more ideological supporters criticize this shift?
Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ)
Parti conservateur du Québe Leader Éric Duhaime will try to accomplish what he failed to do in the last general election: make a real breakthrough in the National Assembly. This time, the polls give him reason to hope for several gains, particularly in the Quebec City and Chaudière-Appalaches regions. Duhaime is expected to focus a significant portion of his campaign on these regions in an effort to turn his support in the polls into seats.
He will be under considerable pressure. He remains the defining figure of his party, not only because he is its leader, but also because Quebecers know little about his team. He will therefore have little room for error over the next 39 days.
In addition to electing MNAs, could the Conservatives find themselves holding the balance of power in a minority government?
NATIONAL’s advisors will be following this campaign very closely. Analyses, podcasts, and summaries will be produced and made available to our clients over the next 39 days. The outcome of this election will inevitably have an impact on how you conduct business. We invite you to connect with us to see things clearly.
