By most political yardsticks, Mark Carney's victory was historic. Unlike other leaders like John Turner and Kim Campbell, who became prime ministers automatically after winning their party's leadership following long-serving governments, yet failed miserably in their subsequent attempts to secure voter approval, Mark Carney not only won at the ballot box but also increased his party's seat count and popular vote. The feat must be appreciated and congratulated for the remarkable win that it is.
Ironically, there was another accomplishment in the election while falling short of the big prize. Pierre Poilievre, similarly, increased his party’s seat count and popular vote to levels that would typically be enough to register a win. In so doing, he lost his own seat. And the collapse of support for the NDP erased the splits on the left that often secure a Conservative win in close 3-way riding races. A bittersweet result, for sure.
Election 2025, notwithstanding the Quebec-focused Bloc, turned out to be as close to a national two-party race as Canada has seen in modern times. The result also reminds just how polarized Canada’s voters remain.
The ballot question fell somewhere between who is best placed to take on President Trump and who is best placed to make life more affordable for hard-working, everyday Canadians. One clue to how voters may have made their assessment is seeing how so many former NDP seats went to the Conservatives. While that does not tell the whole story, the Liberals falling short of a majority for the third time in a row reminds that there is a sizeable segment of the population still reluctant to hand over an unfettered government. Indeed, the simultaneous growth of the Conservative Party’s support suggests that polarization may well be hardening. If so, all political leaders should take it as a wake-up call.
Prime Minister Carney has wasted no time saying he wants to work with other parties, leaders, and premiers for the good of Canada. That is positive. Pierre Poilievre also needs to put water in his wine, be chastened in his seat loss and really consider some of the broader criticism of how “he does” politics. What can he do to be more effective and likeable to more Canadians?
There are plenty of divisive issues to be addressed in the weeks and months ahead—the future of the oil and gas industry, the idea of building a transnational pipeline, removing interprovincial trade barriers, the Supreme Court’s consideration of Quebec’s laicity law, Bill 21, affordability issues, the housing shortage and, of course, the impact of Trump’s tariffs on prices and wider Canada-US relations. There will be others.
Post-election, Canada’s political leaders must recognize the underlying feature of the recent election. A perpetuation of a polarized operating environment will only be counterproductive to positively advancing the hard issues that Canada, now, has no choice but to deal with.
No matter how the political landscape in Canada takes shape, our team of Government Relations experts will be ready to support you in your efforts with elected officials. Contact us for personalised advice.
