Tension at home, tension abroad: Parliamentarians return to Ottawa amidst growing global discord

Parliament resumed this week amidst heightened tensions with the United States, rising cost of living pressures, economic pressures, and national unity concerns. In preparation, Prime Minister Mark Carney convened his cabinet for a two-day planning retreat, followed by a full Caucus meeting to focus priorities and action ahead. In his strategy, Carney has shirked the old adage “Under promise, over deliver”—rather, he continues to advance an ambitious nation-building and trade diversification agenda.

Despite its bold stance, Carney’s government continues to be hampered by its minority status in Parliament, with little progress in advancing legislation, notably its budget implementation bill. Speaking with media about the government’s legislative priorities for the session, Liberal House Leader Steven MacKinnon challenged Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to make good on his offer to work with the government in advancing issues of importance to Canadians. The first test will be if Parliament can enact the affordability measures announced this week by the Prime Minister.

In the meantime, not only is its legislative agenda at a standstill, but industry continues to wait for announcements on core pillars of the government’s platform such as the Defence Industrial Strategy, the AI for All Strategy, and an update on the future of EV regulations—all promised in the near term.

Looking ahead, NATIONAL identifies the following political challenges and priorities relevant to businesses and organizations:

Canada-United States relations : Uncertainty ongoing

While Carney’s Davos speech was widely lauded by global leaders, tensions with the U.S. have bubbled back up with President Trump since pulling Canada’s invite to his “Peace Board”, commenting that China “would eat Canada” in a trade agreement, and threatening to impose 100 percent tariffs should Canada enter an agreement with Beijing.

Despite this backlash, Carney maintains a steady and measured response to the U.S. President, saying “I can take it.” Minister Responsible for Canada-U.S. Trade Dominic LeBlanc continues to engage the lead U.S. trade official, Ambassador Jamieson Greer, reminding that the formal review—not negotiation—for CUSMA will take place later this year.

Legislation agenda: Awaiting concrete results

• Bill C-15, budget implementation bill, currently before the House Finance committee and being fast-tracked in the Senate.
• Bill C-2, which deals with security at the Canada-United States border, is likely to be challenged on the grounds that it contravenes the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
• Prime Minister Carney announced a series of measures related to the cost of living, including a 25 percent increase to the GST credit and a one-time payment to Canadians equivalent to half the annual value of that credit.
• The Minister of National Defence, David McGuinty, is expected to announce later this year the country’s first ever defence industrial strategy, aimed at strengthening Canada’s sovereignty by supporting key sectors.
• Following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Canada and Alberta aimed at strengthening infrastructure related to the energy sector, further announcements on natural resource development measures can be expected.
• The Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Innovation, Evan Solomon, will announce a new version of the national AI strategy early in the year.

Opposition parties

As he prepares to face a confidence vote on January 31 in Calgary, vwhich he is expected to win easily, Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre continues to face internal dissent within the caucus and unfavourable polling. Additional MPs could defect, bringing the Liberals closer to a majority.

In response to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos speech, Pierre Poilievre issued a statement warning of worsening deficits, affordability pressures, stalled energy development, and serious military shortfalls. He cautioned against deepening engagement with China due to national security risks, while stressing the need to maintain Canada’s long-standing, economically interdependent relationship with the United States, alongside expanded trade with like-minded middle powers.

Poilievre committed to advancing the Canadian Sovereignty Act, alongside a plan to rebuild Canada’s defence, in response, outlining measures to rebuild the military, secure the Arctic, accelerate energy and resource development, remove internal and external trade barriers, protect strategic assets, and restore economic self-reliance and sovereignty.

Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet will notably seek to support the Parti Québécois and its leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon in the next Quebec election, which the sovereigntist movement is presenting as a referendum-style election.

The next leader of the New Democratic Party will be chosen on March 29 in Winnipeg. The party holds only seven seats in the House of Commons and does not have official party status. The new leader’s primary challenge will be to ensure the party’s survival.

Engaging government ahead

In light of the economic, trade and political uncertainty, NATIONAL advises leaning in on engagement and communication with government and policy decision-makers. Our Public Affairs team is ready to support navigating this complex terrain, ensuring the right message is delivered to the rights audiences, at the right time. Reach out today to learn how we may help your organization.

For personalized insights and support for your organisation, contact our team of Public Affairs experts.