If there’s one word that captures Ontario politics in 2025, it’s whiplash. This was not a year of slow arcs or tidy narratives, but one defined by sharp turns, sudden pivots, and a persistent sense that the political ground was shifting in real time. From Queen’s Park to council chambers across the province, leaders were often forced to respond on the fly, sometimes successfully, sometimes less so.
Throughout 2025 my colleagues and I kept returning to the same conversations. Between meetings and after client calls, we circled one question: what really mattered? Not just the headlines, but the underlying dynamics: who gained ground, who lost it, and why.
Those conversations revealed a clear theme. Ontario politics in 2025 was not about sweeping transformation or ideological realignment. It was about resilience, pressure, and the growing collision between provincial authority and municipal reality. The highs and lows weren’t always dramatic, but they were consequential and set the table for what comes next.
Ontario: A province in constant motion
At the provincial level, the Ford government once again set the tempo. Sometimes this reflected calculated political moves; other times it was driven by necessity. Either way, the Progressive Conservatives remained the gravitational centre of Ontario politics. Major debates housing, infrastructure, affordability, economic growth continued to flow through Queen’s Park, even when the loudest voices originated elsewhere.
What stood out was how familiar yet intensified this dynamic felt. The government absorbed controversy, recalibrated where required, and kept moving. Opposition parties spent much of the year trying to define their lane in an environment that left little margin for error. Moments that looked like inflection points often became footnotes, reinforcing how much agenda control mattered in 2025.
Municipal politics steps forward
If provincial politics set the rhythm, municipal politics supplied much of the tension. Mayors and councils faced mounting pressure around housing approvals, transit reliability, affordability, and fiscal sustainability. These weren’t abstract debates; they were immediate and visible for residents.
Municipal politics emerged as one of the year’s most consequential storylines. Local leaders were no longer operating quietly in the background; they were shaping and sometimes challenging provincial narratives. In many cases, municipalities proved to be the front line of Ontario’s political ecosystem.
Some leaders rose to the moment, articulating priorities and making difficult trade-offs. Others struggled under expectations that far outpaced their tools. That contrast became one of the clearest lenses for understanding 2025’s political highs and lows.
Provincial high: Doug Ford’s enduring resilience
Few figures embodied political resilience in 2025 more than Doug Ford. Despite controversy, reversals, and sustained pressure, the Premier maintained control of the narrative. Strategic pivots were framed as responsiveness, setbacks were managed quickly, and the PCs continued to project stability.
Ford’s greatest strength remained his ability to define the terms of debate. Even critics often found themselves operating on his terrain. As 2026 approaches, he stands not just as a leader who endured a demanding year, but one who arguably strengthened his position by navigating it.
Provincial low: Bonnie Crombie and the limits of renewal
Bonnie Crombie’s year illustrated how unforgiving opposition politics can be. Efforts to modernize and reposition the Ontario Liberal Party collided with internal division, uneven messaging, and unresolved questions of identity. Pressure mounted from within, and sustaining momentum without a unifying narrative proved difficult.
Her decision to step down underscored a hard truth: patience is scarce in opposition. With no clear successor and no settled vision, the party enters 2026 with more questions than answers.
Municipal high: Leadership that met the moment
At its best, municipal politics in 2025 showed what leadership under constraint can look like. Some mayors leaned into complexity, made unpopular decisions, and explained trade-offs honestly. That approach resonated and elevated municipal leadership from advocacy to agenda-setting.
These moments rarely dominated headlines, but they reshaped how municipalities are perceived at Queen’s Park and beyond.
Municipal low: When fiscal reality collided with ambition
For many councils, 2025 was the year fiscal reality became unavoidable. Rising service demands, aging infrastructure, and limited revenue tools created a perfect storm. Projects stalled, frustration grew, and relationships with the province strained.
These challenges were less about competence than capacity. Municipal governments are being asked to do more with tools that haven’t kept pace. A tension that will only intensify.
What 2025 leaves behind and what to expect in 2026
As the year ends, several themes are clear. Municipal leaders are now central to debates on growth and affordability. The provincial government retains advantage, but not without accumulating risk. And opposition parties face a narrowing window to redefine themselves.
For many, 2025 was not a year of resolution, but of positioning.
Looking ahead, 2026 feels less like a pause and more like an acceleration. Pressure on the Ford government, particularly from municipalities, will continue to build ahead of October’s municipal elections. The opposition faces both risk and opportunity, but voters are impatient with internal debates and vague alternatives.
If 2025 proved anything, it’s that Ontario politics remains fluid and unpredictable. Momentum can shift quickly but only if someone is ready to seize it.
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