Ontario’s 2025 Fall Economic Statement: A plan to protect the province

Ontario’s 2025 Fall Economic Statement, A Plan to Protect Ontario, signals a government focused on resilience and competitiveness in an era of uncertainty. Delivered by Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy, the update underscores a message designed to reassure both residents and investors: Ontario is not waiting for stability, it’s building it.

For businesses and organizations, the statement reaffirms Ontario’s commitment to fiscal stability, energy security, and industrial growth—three pillars that shape the province’s investment climate heading into 2026.

A fiscal plan framed by stability

The 2024–25 deficit is now projected at $1.1 billion, down from the $9.8 billion forecast earlier this year—the narrowest shortfall in over a decade. The province’s net-debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen to 36.2 per cent, its lowest in 13 years, while Ontario maintains AA credit ratings with all four major agencies, following two upgrades in 2024.

Looking ahead, Ontario projects a $13.5 billion deficit in 2025–26, improving to $7.8 billion in 2026–27 before returning to balance in 2027–28. Economic growth is expected to slow to 0.8 per cent next year, gradually rising to 1.9 per cent by 2028.

This fiscal performance signals predictability and a disciplined approach to spending—an environment where government remains a stable partner amid global headwinds.

Protecting workers and industries from tariff turbulence

The central theme of the Fall Economic Statement is Ontario’s proactive response to U.S. tariffs. The province has launched the first phase of its $5-billion Protecting Ontario Account, designed to help industries weather short-term shocks while strengthening domestic supply chains.

Through the $1-billion Protect Ontario Financing Program, Ontario is providing liquidity to manufacturers in steel, aluminum, copper and automotive sectors—critical links in the province’s industrial base. Algoma Steel, for instance, received a $100-million provincial loan alongside $400 million in federal funding to sustain operations and jobs in Northern Ontario.

The province is also investing $20 million in Protect Ontario Workers Employment Response (POWER) Centres, offering rapid retraining and upskilling for workers facing layoffs, and a further $40 million for communities affected by trade disruptions.

Energy and nuclear power: the competitiveness advantage

Ontario’s industrial future is tied to reliable, low-cost, clean energy. A joint $3-billion federal–provincial investment will fund four Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) at Darlington—creating 18,000 construction jobs and powering 1.2 million homes. Combined with nuclear refurbishments at Bruce Power and Ontario Power Generation, this initiative positions the province as North America’s nuclear leader.

For energy-intensive industries—from manufacturing to data centres—Ontario’s commitment to stable, affordable, non-emitting power provides long-term cost certainty and a clear competitive edge over U.S. jurisdictions.

Building the future economy: critical minerals and the north

The province also advanced its Critical Minerals Strategy, introducing a $500-million Critical Minerals Processing Fund to build domestic mining and refining capacity for electric-vehicle batteries and semiconductors. It also confirmed a partnership with Webequie First Nation to begin construction of an all-season access road to the Ring of Fire by 2026—unlocking Northern Ontario’s potential as a strategic resource hub.

The investments strengthen Ontario’s role in the clean-technology and EV supply chain, offering opportunities for companies positioned in energy, mining, logistics, and manufacturing to participate in an emerging continental market.

Infrastructure and housing: building for growth

Ontario reaffirmed its $200-billion, 10-year capital plan, the largest in its history, covering highways, hospitals, housing, and transit. The province is also adopting a “one project, one process” model to streamline environmental and regulatory approvals, a move expected to shorten timelines for major developments.

This predictable, coordinated infrastructure investment not only drives local job creation but also signals that Ontario is ready to work with the private sector to get projects built faster.

Competitiveness, cost relief and collaboration

Ontario is maintaining its permanent gas-tax cut, extending small business and property-tax relief, and expanding the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit. Together, these measures represent more than $25 billion in cumulative tax relief since 2018.

The province’s fiscal plan aligns with federal priorities on energy, housing and critical minerals—most notably through the joint SMR project—but retains provincial control over execution. Bethlenfalvy described this as “leveraging national funding without surrendering provincial control.”

Through this, Ontario is signalling a pragmatic partnership approach—open to collaboration with Ottawa and the private sector, but clear in maintaining its own pace and priorities.

The takeaway

Ontario’s 2025 Fall Economic Statement is less about new spending and more about reinforcing investor confidence. It combines fiscal prudence with targeted industrial policy—anchoring the province’s competitiveness in clean energy, manufacturing, and infrastructure. The message is clear: Ontario remains a stable, investment-grade jurisdiction intent on building, not waiting, for economic growth.

NATIONAL will continue to monitor political and industry reactions and provide further updates. As always, our team of Public Affairs experts is available to provide further insights and analysis on this week’s fiscal update and how it affects your organization or sector. And of course, our team is also available to support your participation in Ontario’s pre-budget consultations in early 2026.