Ontario’s next municipal election is less than one year away, Monday, October 26, 2026, and the clock is already ticking. Nominations will open on May 1, 2026, giving potential candidates just six months to build campaigns, recruit volunteers, and convince voters that local government still matters.
With the election date looming, the province’s major municipalities stand at a crossroad between ambition and inertia. The latest Liaison Strategies polling for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada offers a revealing snapshot of public sentiment across urban Ontario.
In Toronto, Mississauga, and Vaughan, voters are demanding delivery on housing, safety, and infrastructure. They are tired of reports, consultations, and incrementalism. They want visible progress. The mayors who understand this and can show tangible results over the next twelve months will be rewarded. Those who don’t could find themselves casualties of voter impatience.
Toronto: Managing expectations in a city on edge
In Toronto, Mayor Olivia Chow retains a majority approval rating at 52 percent, with 41 percent disapproval. It’s a stable showing, but hardly a guarantee of comfort. The city remains polarized with 48 percent believing Toronto is moving in the right direction, while 44 percent say it’s off course.
The divide mirrors Toronto’s mood: anxious, hopeful, and increasingly skeptical that the city’s governance model can keep up with its problems. The top issue of crime (31%) is almost double that of affordable housing (17%), and almost triple transit (12%). These issues are not new, but their convergence is dangerous as we are seeing residents citing not just policy failures but system fatigue.
Chow’s advantage is she is seen as compassionate, inclusive and empathetic but goodwill alone won’t win 2026. Voters want to see results and reliability and neighbourhoods that feel safe, and housing approvals that lead to homes being built.
If the next twelve months don’t produce visible change, Toronto’s progressive coalition could fracture as voters are sending a clear message: moral leadership must now translate into measurable outcomes.
To Toronto’s north, Vaughan continues to outperform expectations. Mayor Steven Del Duca commands a robust 63 percent approval. But beneath the surface, the city faces its own version of urban strain.
Affordable housing (27%), crime (21%), and transit (14%) top the local agenda. Vaughan’s identity of half-suburban refuge, half-emerging urban centre has created both opportunity and tension. Residents like Del Duca’s steady hand, but the political risk lies in complacency.
Vaughan’s success is sustainable only if it remains livable. Over the next year, Del Duca’s leadership will be tested not by his ability to manage growth, but by his willingness to redefine it. Vaughan can no longer act like a suburb pretending to be a city - it must become one.
Mississauga is Ontario’s political wildcard. With Bonnie Crombie’s transition to and now from provincial politics, the city faces a perceived vacuum of leadership at a critical time. The Liaison poll shows Crombie still leading a hypothetical race at 32 percent, with current Mayor Carolyn Parrish at 28 percent. Those numbers suggest uncertainty more than enthusiasm.
Mississauga’s top concerns of affordable housing (19%), crime (18%), transit (14%) mirrors the broader GTA pattern. But here, these issues are existential. Growth has outpaced infrastructure, and residents are feeling the strain of congestion, cost, and confusion about the city’s future.
In the next mayoral race, the city will forge its future. The next year must focus on delivery over debate.
Across all three cities, the same pattern emerges with the key issues remaining affordable housing, crime and transit with housing pressures driving insecurity, poor transit limiting affordability and crime amplifying anxiety.
Municipal governments often argue these challenges exceed their jurisdiction. That may be true, but voters no longer care. The expectation is clear: local leaders must find a way to make progress, regardless of constitutional boundaries.
Municipal leadership has become less about authority and more about the ability to act creatively within constraints. Therefore, the incumbents must demonstrate not just empathy, but execution.
Over the next twelve months, Ontario’s big-city mayors and councils must shift from rhetoric to results:
- Accelerate housing delivery: Fast-track mid-density projects and leverage provincial tools.
- Rebuild public safety confidence: Combine community-based programs with visible enforcement.
- Restore transit credibility: In Toronto, reliability; in Vaughan and Mississauga, expansion and integration.
- Collaborate regionally: The GTA must act as one system on housing, transit, and affordability.
When nominations open on May 1, 2026, municipalities across the province will begin choosing who deserves another mandate. By then, voters will not be grading on effort rather they’ll be grading on evidence.
A year from now, municipal leaders who can prove they’ve moved the needle on housing, transit, and safety will stand tall. Municipal politics is no longer a waiting game.
Ontario’s cities are demanding results. The countdown to October 26, 2026, has begun.
