Decision 2025: Rising from the ashes—Carney revives the Liberal brand

After a short and fast-paced campaign, Mark Carney led the Liberal Party to victory with a sizeable minority government on election day. Dubbed by Carney himself as “the most important election of our lifetime,” strategists will be studying these results to better understand just what happened. Recall just a few months ago, polls had strongly favoured a sweeping Conservative win, however, instead a confluence of events resulted in a major reversal in public sentiment.

Most significant of which, U.S. President Trump’s tariff war loomed large this campaign, between his so-called independence day falling in the second week of the campaign, to his first call with Mr. Carney, to his taunts over social media, including on election day – Trump’s presence impacted Canada’s ballot question.

True to his election promises, reaching a deal in response to the tariffs will be Prime Minister Carney top priority. Indeed, President Trump has announced a meeting at the White House within the next week, saying that a “deal” is forthcoming.

The next few weeks in federal politics will advance at a rapid pace, while transition processes proceed, including cabinet swearing in and a return of Parliament, Prime Minister and his team will be squarely focused on dealing with the White House. The political agenda will be highly competitive, requiring focused government relations to break through and gain traction.

Election results and political shifts

With almost 69 per cent turnout, and high numbers of advanced voting, vote counting stretched into the day after election day—an unusual circumstance in Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system.

As of the publication of this article, the Liberals are elected in 169 ridings, only 3 seats short of the coveted majority target. In the end, the horserace between the Liberals and Conservatives crowded out the NDP’s vote share, which lost official party status now only represented by 7 Members of Parliament. Similarly, the Bloc Québécois secured 22 ridings and the Green Party elected in only one riding, with Jonathan Pedneault failing to secure the win his riding and stepping down as co-leader.

Having landed three seats short of a majority government, Carney’s Liberals will require the support of the opposition to pass measures in Parliament, known as confidence votes. This will include the Speech from the Throne, which outlines the government’s priorities, alongside spending authorities—whether that takes the form of a budget this spring, or main estimates, a budgetary vote is overdue.

Leadership changes and party dynamics

Having trailed well behind the Liberal and Conservative candidates in his own riding, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was the first leader to speak on election night, conceding his loss and announcing he would step down as party leader once an interim leader could be appointed.

Facing a protest movement in his own riding, Pierre Poilievre lost the seat he’s held since 2004 to his Liberal opponent Bruce Fanjoy. Speaking to supporters, he promised to continue to fight for the promise of Canada, staying on as leader of the opposition and emphasized campaign accomplishments, such as increasing the overall vote share and seat number.

Importantly, Poilievre committed to working collaboratively with the other parties to face off against U.S. President Trump. Yet there could be internal pressure from the party on Mr. Poilievre to question whether he can stay on as Leader. Related dynamics will play out in the coming days/weeks.

Carney's economic mandate and future challenges

Speaking to supporters on election night, Mark Carney emphasized his major platform commitments including doubling the rate of homebuilding, opening up new trade relationships and energy corridors, and importantly, renegotiating Canada’s trade deal with the U.S.

While voters did not respond to Carney’s pitch for a sizeable mandate, they did respond to his view of the ballot question being the leader to respond to the U.S. tariff threats and President Trump. After featuring prominently throughout the campaign, President Trump posted a lengthy message to Canadians on election day, once again taunting the country as the “51st state.” With Carney’s win on a platform of responding to Trump, NATIONAL anticipates the renegotiation of CUSMA to get underway rapidly following the formation of government.

Given the Liberals minority status, Carney will need to broker support from other parties to pass these crucial confidence votes in Parliament. The NDP remains the most likely to make up the balance of power once again. And by extension, Mr. Carney simply does not yet have a clear path to pursue an unencumbered strategy to execute on major files.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre campaigned on the issues of affordability, lower taxation, and energy policy. It is unlikely that Poilievre would seek to secure wins on these issues, as the NDP had in the past election. Carney may seek to pre-empt this by including key Conservative promises in their early work ahead.

A significant takeaway from these election results is the likelihood of another election in 18-to-24-month timeline, if not sooner depending on circumstances of the day. Unfortunately, a level of uncertainty, and short-term politics endemic of minority government, will prevail at the federal level.

Finally, NATIONAL anticipates that the NDP will quickly move to a leadership process. In contrast, Pierre Poilievre, while not securing a win, did secure a sizeable gain in seat count and vote share, and committed to maintain his leadership role. But such stability is simply not certain as of “the day after”—internal Conservative party dynamics could force a change at the top.

Next steps

NATIONAL anticipates that Carney will move swiftly to appoint a cabinet and proceed to a throne speech before the summer break, then shifting gears to work behind the scenes through the summer months.

These early days following the election will be critical in terms of clarity on the Liberals’ ability to chart their own course in the next parliament. Having the Bloc essentially hold the balance of power will put Mr. Carney in an unenviable spot should the minority “hold”—it remains to be seen how much political space the Liberals can find to tackle major challenges such as negotiations with the White House.

NATIONAL’s team of Public Affairs supports its clients understand the impacts of these election results and chart their next steps to gain traction on the political agenda ahead.