THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sammy Kogan
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sammy Kogan
Earlier this week, Ontarians headed to the polls to elect new mayors and councillors in municipalities across the province. What stood out were the key races in Toronto, Mississauga and Hamilton that delivered very different verdicts for their incumbents. Put plainly: this was not a province-wide rejection of the old guard, but instead local assessments of leaders and the challenges still facing their communities. These changes signal that the ability to deliver will depend not only on the mayor, but also those elected alongside them.
In Toronto, Mayor Olivia Chow was re-elected with a resounding 54.16% of the vote, despite polling leading up to the election suggesting that Chow and Bradford were closer in competition. In Mississauga, Alvin Tedjo emerged victorious, delivering surprising upsets to incumbent Carolyn Parrish and former mayor Bonnie Crombie. Tedjo was a relatively unknown candidate in the beginning of the election but slowly built momentum against Parrish who once served as a Member of Parliament for the area and Crombie, who served as Ontario Liberal leader before resigning and returning to municipal ambitions. In Hamilton, incumbent Mayor Andrea Horwath finished third, and challenger Keanin Loomis won with more than 40% of the vote. Before becoming mayor in 2022, Horwath served as the leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party.
But what do these results mean?
In Toronto, despite several shakeups to city council, Olivia Chow continues to have the confidence of voters, building coalitions of support across progressives, union workers, and moderates. Some may also see her commanding win as an endorsement of what she delivered during her first term as mayor, including the historic new deal negotiated with Premier Doug Ford’s government that brought over a billion dollars in new investment to the city for priorities like transit and the Gardiner Expressway.
Chow’s relationship with the Premier has been positive and collaborative since she was elected, including working together on city infrastructure and housing, with only select disagreements on issues like bike lanes. And despite Brad Bradford’s loss, his 41.11% share of the vote suggests many people in Toronto resonated with his message for change, from crime to congestion to the cost of living. After all, this marks the closest Toronto mayoral election results for an incumbent mayor in 26 years.
In Mississauga, Alvin Tedjo’s victory signals a desire for change from voters during a campaign marred by conflict between Parrish and Crombie. Tedjo offered voters a credible alternative to governing as the city faces increasing pressures on infrastructure development and transit.
In Hamilton, Horwath’s defeat signals a strong desire for change from voters, especially as a city that continues to feel the impact of tariffs from the Canada-US trade negotiations.
The pressures ahead and the ability to deliver
For each new mayor and their council, the pressures for their communities continue: affordability, infrastructure capacity and development, housing and safety were all election issues raised across municipal election campaigns. The efficacy of the solutions proposed will depend on the mayor and their allies on council. For example, 7 new councillors will join Toronto City Council, alongside 18 returning incumbents, bringing fresh perspectives and potentially shifting council dynamics. The departures of several key councillors will also create vacancies in important leadership positions, including the TTC, Planning and Housing, Infrastructure and Environment, and Public Health committees. These changes matter because committees play an important role in shaping policy priorities through council. While Mayor Chow's re-election provides continuity on key priorities such as housing and transit, the new council composition will require her to rebuild relationships and secure support on individual policy decisions.
Understanding and mobilizing influence
Understanding who occupies the mayor’s office is just one piece of the puzzle. Beyond the top job, council committees hold institutional value in turning political priorities into decisions on transit, housing and infrastructure. Committee chairs can wield their influence to drive attention to issues, proposals and which recommendations ultimately reach council. These appointments will be announced by start of the new council term on November 15 and will reveal how a mayor intends to build a governing coalition. Inaugural meetings, appointments, staff changes and early budget reports will clarify which commitments have an implementation path.
The key to success is not assessing whether a campaign promise aligns with your organization’s goals. It is working to understand how those promises can turn into practical decisions implemented in the broader machine of government. Organizations should use the transition to confirm their next required decision, its public benefit and funding implications, then engage the political and staff leaders responsible for delivery. Last night’s results are just the first step to understanding the local landscape and how decisions will get made.
If your organization is contemplating next steps to engage the newly elected governments about your policy or project, our team at NATIONAL is here to help. Our team of experts can help clarify the ask, identify the levels of government responsible, and strengthen your pitch.
