« Un budget sérieux pour une période sérieuse » : un problème sérieux pour la Colombie-Britannique?

Premier David Eby’s B.C. government tabled its 2026 budget this week, with a projected deficit of a whopping $13 billion. Finance Minister Brenda Bailey recently said the government would avoid overcompensating through tax increases or major service cuts . Still, the "fiscal plan" (if you can call it that) frames the choice between stabilizing finances over pursuing broader economic growth initiatives. However, it remains to be seen if British Columbia’s government will be successful in this endeavour now that debt servicing is the third largest item on the government’s ledger.

Critical services protected

As is the norm for a New Democratic Party (NDP) government, Budget 2026 protects health care, education, and public safety spending. Bailey told the Vancouver Board of Trade in January 2026 that health care remains the province’s largest expense and is growing at about eight per cent annually, compared with private-sector economic growth estimates of between 1.4 and 1.8 per cent. In the government’s own words, these services are the baseline for “what matters most” and receive modest spending increases:

Key measures include:

• $634 million in new funding to support the growing number of inclusive learning students
• $330 million allocation to ChildCareBC to assist core programs that British Columbians rely heavily on.
• $25 million to support the expansion of childcare on school grounds, something started in fall 2025.
• $2.8 billion in new funding for health-care systems over three years, in addition to $447 million in federal contributions.
• $139 million in additional funding over three years to address repeat violent offending and chronic property crime.

"Investing" in B.C.’s future

Budget 2026 targets skills training and economic reinvestment as levers for long-term growth, while reinforcing workforce development and productivity. This promises "targeted investments to spur economic growth," emphasizing skills and workforce readiness as strategic priorities. Despite its inspirational framing, the government has not yet outlined clear program allocations or measurable outcomes. Interestingly, the budget does not appear to account for the risks posed by AI, particularly in areas like computer science and other professions.

Key areas:

• $241 million to double skilled trades funding over three years.
• $12 million over three years to enhance the employer training grant to help double apprenticeship seats by 2028-29.
• $30 million to train highly qualified professionals by adding specialized streams to existing programs, including engineering, geology, computer science, biology and aerospace.
• $40 million over three years to remove barriers and avoid duplication in permitting across the natural resource and tourism sectors.

Tax system updates

Budget 2026 highlights the need to "update the tax system while managing government expenses", which, some critics say, reads more like a euphemism for a government that cannot control its own spending. While Bailey held up her promise there would be no sweeping service cuts, she missed her promise to not raise taxes . Instead, an increase from 5.06 per cent to 5.60 per cent to the lowest personal income tax rate was announced, although they claim these increases will be offset, partially, by higher tax credits. Bailey’s promise to cut the public service, including at the executive level, does underscore the fiscal pressures this government is feeling.

Key measures:

• Increasing the Speculation and Vacancy Tax rate for foreign owners and untaxed worldwide earners to 4 per cent for the 2027 tax year, an increase from the current 3 per cent
• Increasing the Additional School Tax rates from 0.2 per cent to 0.3 per cent for property values between $3 million and $4 million and from 0.4 per cent to 0.6 per cent for property values above $4 million, effective for the 2027 tax year.
• A commitment to reduce the size of the public sector by 15,000 full-time-equivalent positions (FTEs) over the three-year fiscal plan.

There is no denying voters may experience some significant sticker shock over this budget. Record deficits are projected over the next three fiscal years: $13.3 billion, $12.2 billion and $11.4 billion, respectively, with no clear path to balance. By the time voters hit the polls, total taxpayer debt will rise to $234.6 billion.

Elsewhere, the reviews of Minister’s Bailey’s budget have not been kind. The Vancouver Board of Trade rated this fiscal budget a letter-grade of D . B.C. Conservative Finance Critic called it an "assault on seniors and working families," while the Business Council of British Columbia vice-president of policy David Williams expressed concern for a private sector that is "already very, very weak."

Budget 2026 claims to emphasize discipline over sweeping reform, protecting core services while investing selectively in long-term resilience. In a potential near term election, Eby and the BC NDP may attempt to use this budget to campaign on stability and fiscal responsibility while persistent deficits and limited tax relief for British Columbians will give the opposition clear space to argue the $13 billion deficit has not resulted in affordability or competitive gains for the province. With a deficit similar to a mid-size province’s annual budget, the third biggest line item being debt services, and no clear path to fiscal balance, which narrative will British Columbians believe?

Connect with us to discuss what this evolving fiscal landscape means for you.