For many years, climate change was addressed primarily from the perspective of environmental protection. Today, this view is outdated. Climate change is gradually redefining the way in which transport infrastructure is designed, maintained and operated, whilst directly influencing economic resilience, the security of supply chains and, to a certain extent, defence capabilities.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) describes climate change as a “threat multiplier”—that is, a factor that amplifies existing risks.
Transport infrastructure was developed in a relatively stable climate. Roads, bridges, railways, ports, airports, and public transport networks were all designed on the basis of historical climate data that had long served as a reference for engineers.
This is no longer the case.
Managing authorities must now contend with more frequent heatwaves, episodes of heavy rain, flooding, more pronounced freeze-thaw cycles, and the thawing of permafrost. The challenge is no longer simply to repair infrastructure after a disaster, but rather to maintain efficient networks in an increasingly unpredictable climate.
Transport networks that are becoming increasingly difficult to operate
Heat is a good example.
During periods of extreme heat, road surfaces deform more quickly, bridge joints are subjected to greater stress, and rails expand. Rail operators sometimes have to reduce train speeds to prevent the rails from buckling. The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) considers the rail network to be among the transport infrastructures most vulnerable to climate change.
Airport infrastructure is also affected. Rising temperatures reduce air density, which in turn reduces aircraft performance. Aircraft must travel a greater distance before taking off and may be forced to reduce their payload, fuel load or the number of passengers carried. The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) emphasizes that these phenomena will have an increasing impact on aviation operations and that infrastructure will need to be adapted to the new climatic realities.
These situations do not necessarily bring networks to a complete standstill, but they do reduce their operational efficiency. Delays are becoming more frequent, maintenance costs are rising, and operators’ margins for manoeuvre are shrinking.
When infrastructure comes to a standstill, the whole economy slows down
The consequences extend far beyond the transport sector.
Every closure of a road, railway line or bridge results in diversions, delays deliveries, disrupts public transport networks, mobilises the emergency services, and weakens supply chains. A local incident can thus quickly have economic repercussions across a province or a country.
The 2021 floods in British Columbia perfectly illustrate this reality. The simultaneous closure of several road and rail corridors linking the Port of Vancouver to the rest of Canada disrupted national supply chains for several weeks. Several economic sectors suffered significant losses, demonstrating just how much infrastructure resilience has become a matter of competitiveness.
Quebec is already facing this new reality
Quebec, too, is experiencing the effects of this transformation.
The floods of 2017 and 2019, the exceptional rainfall in Charlevoix and several winter storms have shown that infrastructure must now withstand far more demanding conditions than those that prevailed when it was designed.
This development is also transforming asset management.
For a long time, maintenance programmes were based primarily on the normal ageing of infrastructure. Today, extreme weather events are accelerating this deterioration and making investment planning much more complex.
A road that was due to be upgraded in fifteen years’ time may require major works much sooner.
A bridge culvert designed to meet standards from thirty years ago could become inadequate after just a few episodes of heavy rain.
Hence the importance of setting up contingency funds to maintain our roads.
Resilience is becoming a factor in competitiveness
Today, businesses operate thanks to highly integrated logistics networks.
A disruption on a rail corridor, a motorway or at a port can quickly lead to production delays, supply shortages and increased transport costs.
The resilience of infrastructure is therefore becoming a key factor in economic competitiveness.
Northern regions face additional challenges. The thawing of permafrost is weakening roads, airstrips and various essential infrastructure. In some communities, a single road or airport is responsible for supplying food, fuel and medical equipment. The reliability of this infrastructure is therefore crucial to the continuity of public services.
Designing the infrastructure of tomorrow
In the face of these challenges, infrastructure design is evolving rapidly.
Engineers are increasingly using climate projections rather than historical data to design structures. Drainage capacities are being increased, materials are being adapted to extreme temperatures, and asset management methods are evolving to anticipate risks rather than simply reacting to them.
The aim is no longer simply to build high-performing infrastructure.
It is to build infrastructure capable of continuing to perform effectively despite a changing climate.
This approach is now at the heart of the work carried out by Transport Canada, Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada, the [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)](https://www.oecd.org/en/ publications/adapting-transport-to-climate-change-and-extreme-weather_9789282108079-en.html), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and several international organisations. All reach the same conclusion: infrastructure resilience is now a fundamental element of modern transport network management.
Transport infrastructure: a national security issue
Climate change also has significant implications for defence and security capabilities, primarily because the armed forces rely on reliable transport networks to carry out their operations.
For Canada, the Arctic is probably the best example of this interaction. The reduction in sea ice cover is gradually opening up new shipping routes and increasing the region’s strategic importance. This is why the Department of National Defence, in its policy Our North, Strong and Free (2024), plans to make significant investments to modernize northern infrastructure, strengthen logistical capabilities, and ensure a sustainable presence in the regions most exposed to the effects of climate change. NATO now regards the Arctic as a region where climate change is directly altering security and mobility requirements.
Being proactive rather than reactive
This view is now widely shared.
The OECD, the IPCC, the ICAO, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada, and Transport Canada now recommend that new infrastructure should no longer be designed on the basis of last century’s climate, but in line with climate projections for the next fifty to one hundred years.
Climate change is therefore no longer merely an environmental challenge. It is transforming the way we plan investments, manage assets, ensure the mobility of people and goods, maintain supply chains, strengthen territorial security and guarantee the continuity of essential services.
For Quebec, this consideration is of particular importance. The major transport projects currently being envisaged or under development—whether they concern the ports of Montreal, Quebec and Sept Îles, rail corridors, strategic road infrastructure or airport facilities—will need to incorporate the principles of climate resilience right from the design stage.
The investments made today will determine the capacity of this infrastructure to support economic growth, citizens’ mobility, and Quebec’s prosperity for decades to come.
The true cost of climate change will not only be that of tomorrow’s disasters, but also that of the infrastructure we fail to adapt today.
Climate change is already changing the rules of the game. For public and private organizations, the challenge is no longer simply to adapt, but to anticipate. At NATIONAL, we support our clients through this transition by helping them understand governments’ new expectations, position their strategic projects and develop approaches that balance resilience, social acceptability, and value creation.
