Be it the early start of the campaign, the parties’ respective challenges, the indecipherable ballot question or various other variables, this year’s federal election is certainly a complex one. In a radio interview with CJMF’s Gilles Parent, our Quebec City office Managing Partner, Luc Ouellet, explores the campaign’s many nuances and variables.
With the early onset of the election, our colleague believes that the Conservatives made the right decision. “If they hadn’t launched it this early, the Conservatives wouldn’t have been able to make any announcement without being accused of political opportunism,” says Luc. “And when you trust that you have the strongest team out there, a longer campaign period allows for more time to get back on the horse in the event of a mistake.” That being said, our colleague recognizes that the action and interest will markedly increase by mid-September.
In terms of novelty and fresh starts, Luc is adamant that the attrition of power must absolutely be accompanied by a real desire for change. “Without the combination of these two elements,” he explains, “nothing will change no matter how long a party has been in power.”
When it comes to the all-so-important ballot question, it remains indecipherable at this stage of the campaign despite each party’s efforts to frame the debate to their own advantage. According to our expert, we will rather be facing an election of people's values, with voters choosing the party whose beliefs best reflect their own.
Assessing the situation in Quebec
In Quebec, the campaign may prove a little more difficult for the NDP. Following the 2011 orange wave, Luc believes that Thomas Mulcair’s team can only lose seats this time around, while the Conservatives stand to gain quite a few, namely with star candidates such as Gérard Deltell. For the Liberals, it seems that Trudeau’s biggest mistake lies in his failure to build a strong team. Nevertheless, with such low expectations in Quebec, a good performance by the Liberal leader could turn out to be quite interesting.
At this point in the campaign, and despite the fact that he believes that the Conservatives have thus far succeeded in setting the agenda. Luc Ouellet admits that it would be very difficult to predict the October 19 outcome. However, he is convinced that the general fallout in Ontario and the NDP’s performance in Quebec will undeniably be the two determining factors in this federal election.
Click here to listen to Luc’s complete analysis (in French).